Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 15.672958 18.231114 21.022503 24.287592 27.994716 32.065431 36.866139
2024-10-13 11.675373 15.174575 19.368984 24.734171 31.378137 39.296508 49.405017
2024-10-20 9.016108 12.912948 17.978890 24.968145 34.268592 46.115429 62.225994
2024-10-27 7.197889 11.235697 16.871884 25.171251 36.907647 52.708207 75.338998
2024-11-03 6.345885 10.662585 17.061948 27.010888 41.800662 62.625189 93.716054
2024-11-10 5.525028 9.940934 16.860505 28.162261 45.733144 71.477324 111.340272
2024-11-17 4.841151 9.284680 16.613684 29.135941 49.408235 80.185016 129.404716
2024-11-24 4.066360 8.314367 15.687113 28.854518 51.026440 85.859001 143.309991
2024-12-01 3.319585 7.240767 14.402311 27.765461 51.150422 89.128635 153.655528
2024-12-08 2.747839 6.380300 13.346793 26.897267 51.482407 92.661426 164.570742
2024-12-15 2.403845 5.905891 12.922861 27.083630 53.604673 99.237592 180.838352
2024-12-22 2.078222 5.403493 12.362919 26.926760 55.061868 104.751833 195.663835
2024-12-29 1.933349 5.289751 12.592973 28.375269 59.705813 116.312827 221.955686
2025-01-05 1.717230 4.967292 12.343409 28.842625 62.560308 124.965208 243.886825
2025-01-12 1.513550 4.630994 12.010825 29.092890 65.012367 133.075886 265.442220
2025-01-19 1.336407 4.322408 11.689441 29.318429 67.422401 141.272376 287.699722
2025-01-26 1.292906 4.366779 12.197323 31.420406 73.851954 157.509285 325.827082
2025-02-02 1.206577 4.270959 12.350934 32.735397 78.745755 171.115454 359.847566
2025-02-09 1.117691 4.147441 12.415651 33.847303 83.296459 184.346483 393.943424
2025-02-16 0.974281 3.820679 11.905323 33.525664 84.682562 191.357255 416.430356
2025-02-23 0.814740 3.397717 11.064943 32.281191 83.873686 193.829993 430.121204
2025-03-02 0.688194 3.049104 10.365082 31.288609 83.521673 197.183705 445.727462
2025-03-09 0.616907 2.877777 10.142595 31.501696 85.997713 206.642047 474.262970